Deterioration Rates of Long-life, Low Probability of Failure Assets: Project Report
ISBN: 1 84057 609 X
Several asset groups within the water industry can best be described as long life, low probability, extreme consequence of failure assets. Inclusion of these assets within company investment plans requires consideration of the probability and consequences of asset failure in the future. Where failure probabilities are low, few historical failure data will be available for analysis. Therefore, failure probability must be estimated using alternative methodologies. Nonetheless, if a robust justification for capital maintenance is to be made, these methodologies must be objective, evidence based and capable of external audit. With this objective in mind, the study has undertaken the development of deterioration models based upon sound science and technology. A toolbox has been developed covering key asset groups and failure modes which also includes worked examples and case studies which demonstrate a range of real life scenarios.
The study considered the model outputs in the context of a wider risk-based process, which couples the consideration of failure consequence with the deterioration models in order to support sound intervention planning.
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