Uncertainty & Risk in Supply/Demand Forecasting - Volume A
Two Volume Report (Volume B supplied free of charge with Volume A) The report presents guidelines on how uncertainties in the individual elements of supply and demand can be brought together in an integrated way. The guidelines offer a hierarchical approach that allows the practitioner to select the most appropriate method for a given spatial area. At the simplest level the approach uses data from standard Water Resource Plan Tables, becoming progressively more complex requiring Monte Carlo simulation and then full simulation of the supply-demand balance at a weekly time step. The report also reviews the economic literature and provides guidance on how to interpret uncertainties and improve the process by which investment decisions are made.
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